Three home games in a row have ended level for FH — 2-2, then 1-1, then 1-1 — and they are still rooted to the bottom of the Besta deild, Iceland's top division. That's the pattern they carry into this one: right now they don't lose at home, but they don't win either. Breiðablik arrive in fourth, with a cup final to come and a summer habit of scoring plenty and shipping plenty in the same breath. Two sides heading in opposite directions meet at a ground where one of them hasn't found a way to win.
The market
Both teams to score: not yet set
FH haven't kept a clean sheet in their last eight league games, scoring ten and conceding sixteen over that run. The last three at home tell the story best: they get within touching distance of points but can't close games out. Adolf Daði Birgisson and captain Ísak Óli Ólafsson both scored in the 2-2 draw with Stjarnan, so the threat up top is real — the problem is further back.
Breiðablik sit in a very different part of the table, but they are hardly a steadier side. Across their last eight league matches they've scored twenty-four and conceded twenty-three; scorelines of 6-3, 4-4 and 3-4 all fit inside that window. They lost 1-4 to Víkingur in the league, then answered three days later with a 3-0 win over the same opponents in the cup semi-final — a result that put them into the final. This is a team in good form and, at the same time, a team that keeps letting the opposition in.
One caveat worth flagging: FH's team news dates from early July and may have changed, though Baldur Kári Helgason's one-match ban has in all likelihood been served by now.
LAST 6 MATCHES
The game comes down to whether FH can drag Breiðablik into the low-scoring, tight matches their three home draws point to — or whether Breiðablik's open style pulls it into the same shape as the first meeting, which finished 3-3. For the former to happen, FH need to do exactly what has eluded them for eight games: keep a clean sheet. Adolf Daði and Ísak Óli have shown they can punish, but the question is whether the defence holds long enough for a lead to turn into points. Breiðablik come with Arnar Bjarki Gunnleifsson and company, who seem to find the net almost every week; their full-backs push hard and leave space behind them. If FH can't shut down that space, this becomes another goal-fest — and then FH are in trouble, because they haven't won a high-scoring game all summer.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
Both teams to score: Yes
Market lines aren't set yet, so this is read off form and the table rather than a price. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in eight games, the first meeting produced six goals, and Breiðablik have both scored and conceded in each of their last six. The gap in quality on the table is clear — twenty-two points to eight — and everything points to Breiðablik having more in reserve up front when it matters.
The risk is twofold, and it's real. FH have drawn three in a row at home and regularly manage to drag stronger sides down into a tight, low-scoring game; if this one goes the same way, the away win is in doubt and so is the goals line. On top of that, Breiðablik have a cup final waiting, and if players are rested and minds are elsewhere, a lapse in focus can cost expensive points against a side with nothing to lose.