FH have scored eight goals in two matches. And yet both league meetings between these sides this season finished 1-1. That is the puzzle here. FH Hafnarfjörður come to the Vestmannaeyjar — the islands off Iceland's south coast — on a real roll, having put three past KA and five past Stjarnan. But on both occasions the teams met in the league this year, neither could break the deadlock. ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar host them needing something: nothing less than a point will do. ÍBV sit bottom of the relegation group, and the drop is staring them in the face.
The market
No market was available for this fixture.
FH arrive in a completely different gear from the one they showed for much of the summer. After a regular season in which the draws piled up, they have won both their matches in the relegation round — 3-0 against KA, 5-2 against Stjarnan — scoring eight and conceding two. They sit third in the six-team group, six points clear of the drop zone, and they come here without the weight that rests on the hosts.
Because ÍBV are in an entirely different situation. They are rooted to the bottom, without a win in the relegation round, and with just one goal across two matches — a 0-2 loss to Stjarnan and a 1-1 draw with Valur. They trail KA in fourth by four points and Þór, who sit just above the drop places, by two. Those standings are as of 28 September, though. The round on 10 October — ÍBV against Þór directly, FH away at Valur — may shift things before this one kicks off.
No goalkeeper or starting XI can be projected this far out, and neither side has a confirmed injury or suspension list. What is clear is simple enough: the hosts need points to stay alive in the survival race, and they have not been finding the net.
RELEGATION-ROUND MATCHES
The question the match turns on is a direct one: can ÍBV create enough at home to beat a side that has just scored eight goals in two games? ÍBV's attack has been toothless — one goal in the relegation round tells its own story — and against it comes a defence that has conceded only twice across the same rounds.
The ground matters here. Hásteinsvöllur sits open to the sea, and the wind in the islands can undo a neat passing game and flatten the quality gap between two sides. That suits the hosts, who need to sit compact and make the game awkward, rather than let FH into the open, flowing football they have thrived on these past weeks.
For FH it comes down to which version turns up — the one that rolled over KA and Stjarnan, or the one that churned out draw after draw in the regular season. If the latter shows up in a gale at Hásteinsvöllur, this can easily end level again.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
Both teams to score: No
The pick is an FH win. They are in far better shape, they have scored freely in the relegation round, and they face a side that has barely troubled the net — and even if the ground levels things out, the quality and the form are on their side.
The risk is in the history itself. Both league meetings this summer ended 1-1, and ÍBV are playing for their survival here in front of their own crowd. If the hosts score early and dig in through a gale — or if the flat, draw-friendly version of FH that defined the regular season turns up — the draw that both earlier meetings produced is never far away. Under 2.5 goals follows the same logic: two goals settled both previous meetings, and the wind works against a goal glut.
This is a relegation six-pointer in its purest form. ÍBV are fighting to keep their place in Iceland's top flight on home soil, while FH — a heavyweight of Icelandic football in years gone by — play out the season in the relegation group, a long way from former glories. And as always when football is played in the islands, the weather has a say: FH's trip over by ferry or flight depends on it, and so does the wind at Hásteinsvöllur.