Valur have won four of the last five league meetings with ÍBV. But the one time ÍBV broke that run, it happened right here on Hásteinsvöllur — and it was emphatic, 4–1. That's the picture waiting for Valur as they board the Herjólfur ferry: an opponent they usually handle, but one capable of running them over when the chance comes on home soil. And ÍBV — the islanders from the Vestmannaeyjar (Westman Islands), off Iceland's south coast — have finally clicked into gear.
The market
No market for this fixture was open at the time of writing.
ÍBV's start to the summer was heavy going, and they sat bottom of Iceland's top flight for much of it. Then something fell into place: 6–1 against Keflavík, a first win of the season, followed by a 4–1 on the road at Þór Akureyri. Two big wins in a row, ten goals scored, and the climb clear of the relegation places. Aleksandar Linta, who took over in the winter, is finally getting the return that was slow to arrive.
Valur are a study in extremes. Five wins, five losses, no draws in ten rounds — a side that beats Breiðablik with a dramatic late comeback one day (3–2, with a goal in the closing minutes) and then loses 1–5 at home to Víkingur the next. The defence leaks, roughly 22 goals conceded in as many rounds, and that is the running thread of Hermann Hreiðarsson's season.
The April meeting still stings on the islands. Felix Örn Friðriksson put ÍBV ahead at Hlíðarendi, but Valur turned it around and Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson settled it on 73 minutes. After the whistle, Linta was shown a red card for protesting. ÍBV led and went home empty-handed — and now they get the chance to answer on their own grass.
RECENT FORM (confirmed)
This comes down to one question: can Valur's defence travel and keep pace with the ÍBV attack as it has looked these past few weeks? ÍBV have scored six and four in their last two, and at home, where the wind at Hásteinsvöllur rewards direct play and the scrap for second balls, that's an awkward mix for a back line that has been shipping goals in bunches.
Felix Örn is central to the attack and found the net against Valur last time. At the other end stands Frederik Schram, an experienced goalkeeper behind a defence that has given him little protection this summer, with Hólmar Örn as the anchor in front of him. If Valur cope with the first wave and slow the game through midfield, they have the quality to take control. But if they hand ÍBV open chances in the wind — as they have handed most others — the goals keep coming.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PREDICTION
Both teams to score: Yes
The pick is an ÍBV win. With no market posted, this is read straight from the match itself: the hosts arrive with two big wins behind them and a habit of scoring freely at home, while Valur leak at the back and now travel out to the islands, where the wind levels things for the side that fights harder. A high-scoring game looks likely — both defences have given plenty away, and both teams have managed to score in most of their matches this summer.
The risk lies in the quality gap that Valur's historical edge in this fixture is built on. They turned the last meeting around despite falling behind, and if ÍBV slip back into the form that defined their first eight rounds — rather than the run of the last few weeks — Valur are good enough to pull clear. Two games on a thin sample don't tell the whole story, and this prediction rests on ÍBV's upturn being real rather than a fluke.
This is a home game for ÍBV in the fullest sense. Valur have to make the trip by the Herjólfur ferry or fly out, both at the mercy of the weather, and Hásteinsvöllur greets visitors with its notorious wind. Kickoff is 16:00 on a Saturday, live on Sýn Sport. It's on days like this, in conditions like these, that ÍBV are at their hardest to beat at home.