KR lost the title on their own pitch. Víkingur turned the game around to win 2–1 in round 24, and with that the championship was gone — KR's season narrowed to a single question: can they hold on to second place all the way to the line? That spot carries a European place, in the Conference League qualifiers, and Fram are breathing down their necks, just a point back. Keflavík, by contrast, have little left to play for. Safe in the upper half in their first season back in the Besta deild — Iceland's top flight — they're clear of any relegation worry. And that's exactly the kind of situation that can make a newly-promoted side dangerous.
The market
No reliable market read is available for this one.
Form tells you plenty about both teams. KR score a lot and concede a lot — a 5–1 win over ÍA, with Galdur Guðmundsson scoring twice, followed by a 1–2 home defeat to Víkingur in their very next game. This is a side that creates chances and gives them up in equal measure. They haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their recent matches.
Keflavík have been steadier in open games at home — a 2–2 with Fram in round 24 — but had no answer to the champions, who ran over them 4–1. Eiður Orri Ragnarsson has been their most reliable scorer; he got both goals in a 2–0 win at Þór Akureyri in August and started against Fram. Frans Elvarsson, the experienced captain, returned to the starting line-up for the first time this summer after the squad was reshaped — Muhamed Alghoul was sold before round 24, and the attack was rebuilt mid-season.
For KR, the useful news is that Hrafn Tómasson served his one-match ban in round 25 against Fram and should be available here — important for the spine of the team. For a side fighting for a European place, every point in these closing weeks matters, and KR arrive with the sharper motivation of the two.
RECENT MATCHES (verified)
1–2 vs Víkingur, 5–1 vs ÍA — earlier rounds unverified
2–2 vs Fram, 1–4 vs Víkingur, 2–0 at Þór — earlier rounds unverified
The game likely turns on whether Keflavík can convert their tightness at home into points against a KR side pushed forward by motivation — the fight for second place. Galdur has been KR's attacking spark, and the visitors will want to take control early and work the fast breaks. That's where the danger lies for them: a side that attacks hard and concedes chances in return leaves space behind when the counters start flying.
Keflavík have lived off exactly those moments at home. If Eiður Orri gets going and the hosts can keep the game tight for long stretches — as they managed against Fram — Frans's experience in midfield can give them the composure to punish KR when the back line opens up. For KR the key is simple: keep their discipline at the back, don't let the weight of the attack drag them too far forward, and the quality up front should tell. Lose that discipline and this becomes the kind of open game both sides are prone to.
HEAD-TO-HEAD 2026
KR 3–2 Keflavík (home win) Keflavík 3–2 KR (home win)
The pattern (both league meetings this year): the home side won both, 3–2, with goals at either end. This is the third meeting of the year — and Keflavík are at home again.
*(Head-to-head results drawn from fixture listings only — dates unconfirmed.)*
THE PICK
Both teams to score: Yes
With no market lines to read, the pick comes straight off the form. The pick is a narrow KR win. They bring the sharper motivation, more attacking threat and a returning Hrafn, and while the defence is leaky, the drive that comes with chasing a European place should outweigh the flatness that can creep in once a side like Keflavík is safe. Both teams to score and over 2.5 lean directly on the pattern: both meetings this year finished 3–2, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in any of their verified matches.
The risk is the home pattern itself. Both 2026 meetings went to the home team, and Keflavík play here on their own ground, free of pressure — precisely the conditions that can unlock a newly-promoted side. If they get an early lead and draw KR out, a third 3–2 home win of the year is very much on the cards. The goals calls, though, stand regardless of who takes the points.