Stjarnan have conceded ten goals in their last two rounds — 0–5 at KR, then 1–5 away at ÍA — and now the newly-promoted Keflavík come to town, the side that put five past ÍA earlier in the summer. Two defences in disarray meet in Garðabær. The question isn't whether there will be goals, but which back line holds up better — and whether a tired Stjarnan, deep in a European run, can reset at home against a side that is itself pulling in both directions.
The market
Both teams to score: Yes the more likely
*(The market isn't fully formed this far out; it needs a second read closer to kickoff.)*
Stjarnan's outlook is bleak right now. One win in five, fifteen goals conceded and two humiliating defeats in a row — but both of those came on the road, and at home they beat KA 3–1 at the end of June. Árni Snær Ólafsson in goal has been linked with errors in those heavy defeats, and it's the defending, not the attack, keeping head coach Jökull Ingi Elísabetarson awake. On top of it all comes the European load: the club has been busy in Conference League qualifying alongside the league, and a midweek programme leaves its mark on the legs by the time the weekend arrives.
Keflavík are a side that swings hard. Eleven goals scored and twelve conceded in their last five — big wins like 5–2 and 3–2 mixed in with heavy away defeats, including a 1–5 at Víkingur last time out, in which Þorlákur Breki Baxter did at least get on the scoresheet. The forward line can do damage, but the defence gives way on its travels.
The table makes this something close to a six-pointer: barely a point separates ninth-placed Stjarnan from a Keflavík side sitting just above the split line, where the league divides after the regular rounds into a top-six group and a bottom-six group. *(Positions are provisional, as of 26–27 July — to be confirmed with Iceland's football federation.)*
LAST 5 MATCHES
The key is which defence cracks first. Andri Rúnar Bjarnason leads the Stjarnan line — he scored in the reverse fixture and again against ÍA — and he comes up against a Keflavík back line that creaks away from home. That's the end of the pitch where Stjarnan should be able to punish.
The other end is more combustible. Keflavík arrive with players like Þorlákur Breki and Muhamed Alghoul, both of whom have found the net recently, against a Stjarnan defence that has let in fifteen goals in five matches and a goalkeeper under the microscope. If Keflavík press early and test Árni Snær, the game could open right up.
The condition for Stjarnan is simple: if the home defence keeps its composure through the first half-hour and avoids the individual errors that have defined recent weeks, the attack should be enough. If it falls apart early, this becomes the kind of shootout a tired side least wants to be in.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
17 May 2026 — Besta deild — Nettóvöllurinn — Keflavík 1–1 Stjarnan (Alghoul 41', Andri Rúnar Bjarnason 49')
THE PICK
Both teams to score: Yes
The pick is a narrow home win for Stjarnan. They've held up better at home than on the road, Andri Rúnar is in scoring form and the Keflavík defence gives way away from Reykjanesbær — enough to offset the grim overall picture. On the goals front the case is clearer: neither side has kept a clean sheet in five matches, and the recent pattern for both points firmly to goals at both ends.
The risk is the fatigue. Stjarnan have been running flat out in Europe and the league at once, and a side that has conceded ten goals in two rounds can't afford to fall behind early. If the game goes 1–0 or 2–0 to Keflavík inside the first half — as it did against KR and ÍA — an open match can turn quickly against the hosts. That's the scenario that sinks the result pick, though the goals calls should still stand.
This is also a tale of two very different autumns. Stjarnan are trying to keep the European dream alive — they got past Víkingur Gøta of the Faroe Islands and hosted the Finnish side Ilves in Garðabær on 23 July — while their league form buckles under the strain. Keflavík, promoted from Iceland's second tier after two years away and based in Reykjanesbær on the southwest coast, arrive just as the hosts are at their most vulnerable. For both, this is about ending up on the right side of the split line.