For 92 years, Egypt had never won a match at a World Cup. That changed in Vancouver a fortnight ago, when they beat New Zealand 3–1 and reached the knockout rounds for the first time in their history. Now there's another threshold the country has never crossed — a win in a knockout tie. Standing between them and that milestone is an Australia side that gives little away and punishes on the break. But the biggest question heading into this game isn't about Australia at all. It's about Mohamed Salah's left leg.
The market
No verified market read is available for this one.
Australia arrive off a tight, well-drilled group stage. They opened with a surprise 2–0 win over Türkiye, lost to the hosts in the United States, then closed out the group with a goalless draw against Paraguay that was enough for second place. Two clean sheets in three games tell the story: this is a team that defends deep, holds its shape and looks for chances on the counter rather than keeping the ball. The one unresolved question is in goal. Patrick Beach was excellent on his debut against Türkiye, but Maty Ryan — the captain, at a record-equalling fourth World Cup — is also in the squad, and the goalkeeper choice isn't settled.
Egypt sit at the other end of the spectrum. They scored in all three group matches — a draw with Belgium, the win over New Zealand, a draw with Iran — but they also conceded in every single one and never kept a clean sheet. The attack flows; the defence leaks. And hanging over everything is Salah's fitness. He was reportedly withdrawn in the 57th minute against Iran with his left leg strapped, and coach Hossam Hassan has said publicly that he expects him available — without committing to anything. There is no official medical update.
Recent form (group stage)
This game probably turns on whether Australia can shut the middle on Salah — assuming he starts — and turn Egypt's defensive looseness into chances of their own. Australia don't press high. They pull together, choke the space in front of the box and trust themselves to win the ball and break. Nestory Irankunda, Australia's youngest-ever World Cup scorer, and Connor Metcalfe are the ones expected to finish those moves.
Egypt, by contrast, want the ball out to Salah and Omar Marmoush, using their pace against a back line that sits deep. If Salah is missing, or only a shadow of himself, the load shifts onto Marmoush and Trézéguet, who scored against New Zealand. The key for Australia is simple but hard: keep the Egyptian front line outside the box and punish at the other end, and the game tilts their way. If Egypt manage sustained pressure, the Australian block gives sooner or later.
Head-to-head
No reliable head-to-head record is available — the two nations have rarely met, and no confirmed record could be sourced.
The pick
With no market line to lean on, the pick rests entirely on the game itself. This is a meeting of two evenly matched sides — one set up to defend, the other to create — and in a single knockout tie with extra time waiting underneath, there's little pointing to a flood of goals. Australia have scored just one goal in two of their last three matches and put defensive work first; Egypt carry the attacking weight, but the uncertainty around Salah blunts their edge. So the pick is a tight, low-key game that finishes level after 90 minutes and stays under 2.5.
The risk comes in two forms. If Salah is fully fit and Egypt get to play at their tempo against a deep Australian line, one moment can crack the game open and bust the under. At the other end, Egypt's defensive looseness can also gift Australia a transition chance they take — and the draw is gone.
The match is live on RÚV at 18:00 Iceland time, nicely placed for a Friday-evening audience here. There's no Icelandic connection to either side, but few games carry a storyline question as clean as this one: does Salah make it onto the pitch?