Iran are based in Tijuana, on the Mexican side of the border, and had to head straight back there after their opening match. Captain Mehdi Taremi says the return trip to the Los Angeles area took five hours once security checks and delays were added in — a journey that should be short. The squad lands on the day of the game, a few hours before kickoff, and they have lodged a complaint with FIFA over the travel restrictions. Across from them stands a Belgium side with everything it needs to make the day longer still. Both teams drew their openers and sit level on a point.
The market
Both teams to score: no line captured — leans towards yes
Belgium came through qualifying unbeaten, but their tournament began awkwardly. Against Egypt they fell behind and stayed stuck at 1-0 until Romelu Lukaku came off the bench in the 66th minute — and just 23 seconds later he forced the own goal that rescued the point. That match left Rudi Garcia with questions to answer: does Lukaku start, and who fills the gap out wide? Jérémy Doku is reported out through illness, and his replacement isn't yet settled.
The stumbles aside, the gap in quality is clear. Kevin De Bruyne had Belgium's first shot on target against Egypt and clipped a second-half free-kick off the post, and Thibaut Courtois remains in goal. Iran, for their part, were a pleasant surprise. Against New Zealand they twice went behind and twice answered, including a Mohammad Mohebi header from a Ramin Rezaeian pass — the right-back who scored himself and was a threat all night. But more than one player cramped up late on, which Amir Ghalenoei put down to a lack of preparation time. That's the thread this match could hang on.
RECENT FORM
vs New Zealand 2-2 — both teams scored
The question that decides most of this is simple: how long does the deep Iranian block hold? Belgium will keep the ball, probe through the middle with De Bruyne and stretch the defence out to the flanks. Ghalenoei answers with a compact shape, a low defensive wall and the hope that Taremi and Rezaeian punish on the counter, as they did against New Zealand. While the legs last, it can work — Iran showed straight away that they carry a threat going forward and don't fold when they fall behind.
The problem is physical. A side that cramped in its first match, sleeps on the other side of the border and lands on matchday itself will struggle to hold full intensity for 90 minutes against a team that can call on Lukaku as the game wears on. The final half-hour is the key passage. If Iran are still level by then, anything is possible; if the tiredness shows, Belgium's bench is strong enough to make it count.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
The two sides have never met at senior level.
THE PICK
Both teams to score: Yes
The pick is a Belgium win with both teams scoring. The quality and the depth of the Belgian squad should tell in the end, but Iran have already shown they'll score against anyone — they came from behind twice in their opener and have, in Taremi and Rezaeian, players who punish on the break. Belgium's defence also looked shaky against Egypt, which supports goals at both ends. No total line is available, but the read leans towards goals in this one.
The risk is twofold. One: Iran's deep set-up, played to the letter, could force the kind of grey, low-scoring game where Belgium grind out a 1-0 and no more. Two: if the fatigue and cramp arrive sooner than expected, this can turn into a comfortable Belgian win without Iran ever responding — and then the both-teams-score leg falls.
The match is live on RÚV at 19:00 Iceland time, a comfortable evening slot for viewers at home. RÚV holds the rights to all 104 matches at the tournament, and its panel and commentary team include Bjarni Guðjónsson, Eiður Smári Guðjohnsen, Kjartan Henry Finnbogason and Ólafur Kristjánsson.