On paper this is straightforward. England sit fourth in the world rankings, DR Congo 46th, and the two have never met. But England came through Group L without convincing anyone — goalless against Ghana, flat against Panama — and now they face a side built to punish exactly those flaws. DR Congo, the Leopards, are in a World Cup knockout round for the first time, 52 years after their debut as Zaire in 1974. The story is on their side in one sense: they have nothing to lose.
The market
Both teams to score: no clear read
Thomas Tuchel brings a side that won its group but lit up very little. The 4-2 win over Croatia was the real thing. What followed was a goalless grind against Ghana and a flat 2-0 over Panama, long spells passing without much happening. Six goals scored, two conceded, two clean sheets — the numbers look fine, the performances less so.
The biggest worry is right-back. Reece James is a doubt, Jarell Quansah limped off against Panama with an ankle problem, and Tino Livramento dropped out before the tournament. Tuchel called the race for Quansah a tight one, and if he isn't ready, Djed Spence may be the only natural option — though the manager has tended to use him on the left. On the other side of the ledger, Declan Rice is back available for midfield; he sat out the Panama game to protect against a yellow-card suspension, not through injury, and Bukayo Saka came through his first start unscathed.
DR Congo arrive with a clear plan. They held Portugal to a 1-1 draw, Yoane Wissa equalising on the stroke of half-time, lost narrowly to Colombia, then turned a 1-0 deficit into a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan — Wissa with two, Mayele with the third. Sébastien Desabre has them sitting deep, ceding the ball and waiting to strike on the break.
Recent form (group stage)
The match comes down to one question: can England break down a compact block while protecting a reshuffled right flank against fast transitions? This is precisely the problem they wrestled with in the group. Against a deep side happy to give up the ball, England lost their patience — and that is exactly what DR Congo intend, to shut the middle and trust their speed going forward.
This is where Wissa comes in. The Newcastle forward has scored at every step of DR Congo's run from the group into the knockouts, and he will hunt the weak spot — the left side, where England are still piecing the defence together. If Spence ends up out there, unfamiliar on the right, Wissa gets room to run in behind him. The key for England is an early goal; fall behind and DR Congo are forced to open up, and the game suits England's forward line far better. Stay scoreless deep into the match and the discomfort level climbs higher than most expect.
Head-to-head
The two have never met. No history — this is the nations' first fixture.
The pick
England have too much depth and too much firepower to lose this — Harry Kane alone has eleven World Cup goals behind him, and Jude Bellingham scored against both Croatia and Panama. DR Congo conceded in all three group games, so once England finally crack the block, the goals should follow.
The risk runs two ways. One, DR Congo's compact, disciplined defence keeps England quiet the way Ghana did — make it a 1-0 grind and the over goes down. Two, England's right side is a real weakness, and if Wissa gets one clean break in behind that reshuffled defence, this is far tighter than the gulf in quality suggests.
The match is on at 16:00 Iceland time — a comfortable afternoon watch here. Iceland didn't make the tournament, so for us the drama is simple: can a 52-year-old underdog story upset one of the favourites?