France and Iraq have never met — not at a tournament, not in a friendly. The entire history between the two begins in Philadelphia on Monday night. On one side, the 2018 world champions, with Kylian Mbappé fresh from a brace against Senegal that made him France's all-time leading scorer on 58 goals. On the other, Iraq, back at a World Cup for the first time in forty years and coming off a 4-1 loss to Norway. The question is barely whether France win. It's by how much — and whether Didier Deschamps allows himself to rest a few players.
The market
Both teams to score: unclear, but the market leans toward a France clean sheet
France won their opener 3-1 against Senegal without playing well in the first half. Senegal were the better side early — they hit the post and spurned a clear chance — but after the break the French attack clicked. The numbers tell the story: 1.89 expected goals to 0.5. With three points banked and Norway still to come in the final group game, there's open talk of Deschamps resting key men, and by some reports Saliba could be given the night off. Hugo Ekitike is out of the squad, but otherwise France are at full strength and Mbappé is in form.
Iraq face a very different situation. They conceded twice before half-time against Norway, where Erling Haaland and company punished set pieces and defensive errors, and Aymen Hussein eventually added an own goal to the misery. Norway had 57% of the ball and led the shots on target 5-1. Hussein did score with real conviction, and he remains Iraq's best hope. Under their Australian coach Graham Arnold, Iraq will set up in a deep block, look to compress space and frustrate, and gamble on the counter — exactly the pattern that earned them their goal against Norway. The problem is that against France the same fine margins turn ruthless.
RECENT FORM
The key question is simple in theory and brutal in practice for Iraq: can the deep block and the set-piece marking hold up long enough to keep them in the game? France threaten from everywhere. Michael Olise is the creative hub — he set up Mbappé's first goal against Senegal — and with Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé out wide, France have the pace and the individual quality to prise open compact defences. From set pieces, Dayot Upamecano and Saliba add a genuine aerial threat, in precisely the area where Iraq came undone against Norway.
Iraq, in turn, rely on Hussein and Ali Al-Hamadi up front, and on Ali Jasim feeding them on the break, as he did in Foxborough. For that to work, they need to avoid falling behind early. If France score inside the first quarter, Iraq are forced out of their shape — and then the game opens right up for an attack that pushes five or six men forward.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
The two sides have never met.
The pick
Both teams to score: No
The gulf in quality is simply too wide. A French attack that rolled over Senegal after the break here meets a back line that conceded four in its first game and struggles on set pieces. France don't win narrowly against sides of this level, so the signs point to goals and a French lead before half-time.
The risk cuts two ways. Deschamps could shuffle the side so heavily that the rhythm drops — if France go 2-0 up early and ease off thereafter, the under can firm up. And Iraq did score against Norway and carry a counter-attacking spark; if one of those comes off, the "both teams to score — no" call is in trouble. But for the result itself to go wrong, you'd need something close to a miracle.
Icelandic viewers can follow it on RÚV at 21:00, with Eiður Smári Guðjohnsen among the pundits. (RÚV, Iceland's public broadcaster, carries every match of the tournament.) The draw is twofold: Mbappé and a France side chasing the title, and the rare sight of Iraq back at a World Cup — the team that grabbed the final place by beating Bolivia in the play-off.