France have scored fourteen goals and conceded two in five matches at this tournament. Yet it took a single penalty to break down Paraguay, who sat deep and locked the box. Now they face a side built precisely to set that trap. Morocco are unbeaten so far, holding Brazil to a draw and knocking co-hosts Canada out. These are the same two teams that met in the Qatar semi-final four years ago — only now, a round earlier, with a place in the last four on the line.
The market
France arrive with a perfect record from the group, five wins from five and three clean sheets behind them. But the numbers don't tell the whole story. Against teams that sat deep, the attack narrowed sharply, and against Paraguay only Mbappé's penalty on 70 minutes settled it. Ousmane Dembélé scored a first-half hat-trick against Norway at this very ground in the group stage, so the forward line knows where the net is — the question is whether it can find the route through a disciplined wall. On top of that, the midfield balance is uncertain: Aurélien Tchouaméni is reported to be carrying a groin problem, missed the Paraguay tie, and is a doubt here.
Morocco are put together differently. They defend with discipline, sit fairly deep, and break quickly when the chance comes. They squeezed past the Netherlands on penalties — with Yassine Bounou central to the shootout — but against Canada everything clicked and it finished 3–0, Azzedine Ounahi scoring twice. They do this without two men who were first-choice before the tournament: centre-back Nayef Aguerd and winger Abde Ezzalzouli both dropped out injured before the opener. And all of it is under Mohamed Ouahbi, who took charge only three months out from the finals after Walid Regragui resigned — according to reports.
LAST 5 MATCHES
The game will likely be decided down Morocco's right, where Achraf Hakimi rules. Hakimi is as much a second attacker as a full-back — the team's main outlet, driving up the pitch and dangerous both on the counter and from set pieces. France want to pin Morocco back, wear down the wall, and trust that the pace of Mbappé and Dembélé eventually finds a gap. But the moment they push hard, space opens up behind — exactly where Hakimi wants to run.
That's the condition. If France can tie Hakimi to his own box — force him to defend rather than attack — Morocco lose their main outlet and have to create by other means, which has come harder to them. But if Hakimi is allowed to charge forward unchecked against a high French line, Morocco's counter is a live threat all night. It's the same problem Paraguay set France, just with better players to punish every open yard.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
France have the quality, the depth and the forward line to decide a game out of nothing, and across 120 minutes and a shootout it's hard to see anything other than them going through. But over 90 minutes, everything points to a tight, low-key game. Morocco sit deep, defend with discipline and give little away, and France have shown themselves that against that kind of wall the attacks dry up — one goal against Paraguay, two in the 2022 semi-final. So the pick is a France win but fewer than 2.5 goals, against the modest lean to Over.
The risk is that France score early. If Morocco fall behind, they have to open up and attack themselves, and that frees the space France's runners live for — in which case the game can easily tip over the line. And if Tchouaméni is out, that too could shift the balance in midfield and make for a more open game than expected.
For Icelandic viewers there's a familiar face here. France were in the same World Cup qualifying group as Iceland and finished above Sævar's men — sorry, above our lot, who sat third behind France and Ukraine in autumn 2025 and didn't make it through. The match is live on RÚV at 20:00 Iceland time, a convenient primetime slot for the evening.