Germany scored seven against Curaçao on Matchday 1 and toyed with them. Ivory Coast took the slower road, winning 1-0 with a goal in the 90th minute and a clean sheet to show for it. Two teams, two wins, three points each — but they arrived at the top of Group E by completely different routes. They meet in Toronto on Saturday, and this is where Julian Nagelsmann's side gets its first real examination of the tournament. A win seals Germany's place in the round of 32. For Ivory Coast, a point might be enough.
The market
The 7-1 looks spectacular on paper, but Nagelsmann will have learned little from it. Curaçao were simply a level below, and both Ivory Coast and Ecuador are far more dangerous opponents. Germany's attack runs on short, quick combinations through Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz, and when that trio is in full flow there isn't much that stops it.
Ivory Coast won their opener on entirely different terms. They were organised and disciplined against Ecuador, kept a clean sheet and offered little going forward — which is perhaps no surprise when all 26 players in Emerse Fae's squad were making their World Cup debut. Fae started Nicolas Pépé and Elye Wahi, and neither got going.
Wahi, as it happens, is now out of the picture entirely. He has reportedly been denied entry into Canada and will miss the match, a matter linked to an arrest in May. His absence should mean Ange-Yoan Bonny leads the line, and Bonny's physical presence could be useful against Germany's defenders. Centre-back Evan N'Dicka, meanwhile, is reported to be a doubt with a hamstring problem. There are more open questions in Fae's side than in Nagelsmann's.
RECENT FORM (World Cup, Matchday 1)
The match turns on whether Ivory Coast's disciplined defence can handle Germany's central combinations in a way Curaçao could not. Wirtz, Musiala and Havertz move constantly between the lines, hunting the gaps. If Fae can hold a tight, deep block and shut the space between defence and midfield, breaking through the middle will be harder for Germany than the numbers from game one suggest.
Ivory Coast's attacking hope lies in the pace of their wingers. Yan Diomande was behind almost everything good they created against Ecuador, and Amad Diallo scored the late winner. Both are a threat on the break, and that is exactly why the balance at Germany's left-back — whether Raum or Brown starts — is an open question. If Ivory Coast can get into quick transitions with Diomande and Amad in front, they'll get their chances. But first they have to survive the pressure and keep the ball long enough to threaten.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
The sides have reportedly met only once — a 2009 friendly that ended 2-2.
THE PICK
The gap in quality is simply too wide: Germany have more ways to score and a better player in nearly every position. But Fae's organised, well-drilled defence and the fact that a single point might carry Ivory Coast through both point to a cautious game with fewer goals than the 7-1 might imply. The pick is a German win without the floodgates opening — something along the lines of 1-0 or 2-0.
The risk cuts two ways. On one side, Ivory Coast could keep another clean sheet, settle for a draw and take the point they need — and there the German-win call falls apart. On the other, the pace of Diomande and Amad on the counter could produce goals at both ends if the game opens up early and Germany take the lead, and there the Under is in danger. It's precisely the balance between those two outcomes that makes Under and a German win the most sensible read.
The match is live in Iceland on RÚV, which holds the rights to the World Cup, and kicks off at 20:00 Iceland time on Saturday evening.