Germany scored ten goals in the group stage, among the most prolific returns of the tournament so far. They also conceded in all three matches and lost the last one. Paraguay managed just two goals across the whole group, yet kept two clean sheets in a row on their way through. This is a meeting of two opposite routes out of the group: an attack that opens everything but shuts nothing, against a side that barely musters a shot but gives nothing away. The question in Foxborough is simple — which approach cracks first.
The market
Germany topped Group E with six points and the most goals, but they showed the flaws that travel with them. After a 7-1 thrashing of Curaçao and a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast settled by a 94th-minute goal, they lost 1-2 to Ecuador in the final group game — admittedly with qualification already secured. The goals arrive in bunches; the clean sheet never came. And they head into the knockouts without Nico Schlotterbeck, out for the rest of the tournament with ankle-ligament damage picked up against Ivory Coast. Antonio Rüdiger steps into the centre of defence for Nagelsmann.
Paraguay's story runs the other way. They were beaten heavily on opening day, 1-4 by the USA, with all four goals shipped in that one game. Then it all clicked into place: a 1-0 win over Türkiye and a goalless draw with Australia, two clean sheets in a row and four points that were enough to advance as one of the best third-placed sides. This is Gustavo Alfaro's team in a nutshell — compact, disciplined and toothless on the ball. Two goals in three games tell the story: the moment Paraguay fall behind, they have no answers.
RECENT FORM (group stage)
The game will be decided in a tight strip of grass in front of Paraguay's defence. Germany will keep the ball and try to break down a deep, organised block through Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz, the pair playing behind lone striker Kai Havertz. Musiala is back to full fitness after injury and scored against Curaçao; together with Wirtz he forms the axis tasked with finding the gaps when Paraguay retreat. Standing in the way is Gustavo Gómez, the captain and the anchor of the back line that kept two clean sheets in a row. His job is to keep the lines tight and push Germany out to the flanks, where the danger thins out.
The key is the early goal. Keep it level deep into the match and Paraguay can sit in their block and trust the counter — Sanabria breaking, runners flooding wide — and Germany have shown they concede when the full-backs push on too eagerly. But fall behind and Paraguay have to come out of their shell, and that opens exactly the space Musiala and Wirtz thrive in. Everything points to the first goal mattering more here than usual.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
The gap in quality is simply too wide: Germany have more routes to goal than Paraguay have answers, and over 90 minutes there is little to suggest anything other than a German win. The pick is still a tight game rather than a goal glut — Paraguay are built to hold on, and the signs point to them making this awkward and low-scoring for as long as they can.
The risk comes in two forms. One is that Germany break the block early, at which point everything can open up fast — they showed against Curaçao what happens when an opponent is forced to chase. The other is that Germany have conceded in every single game, so one well-worked Paraguay counter puts the "both teams to score: no" call in jeopardy. If it goes 1-0 early, the under firms up; if the game opens out, both halves of the pick are exposed.
Kick-off is at 20:30 Iceland time, and the game is reported to be free-to-air on RÚV, which holds the Icelandic rights to the World Cup. An evening's viewing for anyone who wants to see whether the German attacking machine can break through the most stubborn defence it has faced at the tournament so far.