ÍA sit ninth, Þór dead last — but form turns the table on its head. Akranes have shipped three goals or more in three of their last four, and came home from Keflavík on the wrong end of a 5-2. Þór, who have conceded more than anyone in the division, spent the same weekend beating reigning champions Víkingur 2-1. So the bottom side arrive with a win over the best team in the country behind them, against a side in defensive free fall. This is a relegation six-pointer in which neither team can trust its own back line.
The market
No reliable line is available this far out. The read below is built on form, not on the market's numbers.
Both sides are fragile. ÍA have leaked badly on the road lately — five against KR, three against KA, five against Keflavík — and across the season they stand at 21 scored, 33 conceded in fifteen games. At home they've looked steadier, seeing off Valur 1-0 with a clean sheet, but the defence as a whole is shaky. Four points separate them from Þór and just one from KA, the side directly above the drop zone, so the need for points against the bottom club is obvious.
Þór are more open still. Forty-two goals conceded in fifteen games is the worst defensive record in the league, and they've twice let in six or more in a single night — most recently a 6-1 loss to Fram. But there's more than one story here. Þór led KR 3-0 before that game finished 3-3, and the win over Víkingur on 18 July shows they can bite back against a side that's wobbling. Sigurður Heiðar Höskuldsson has built a team that scores in most games but rarely keeps a clean sheet.
Worth keeping in mind: both sides play twice before this fixture, so the standings could shift a fair bit before kickoff.
LAST 6 MATCHES
(? = Fram, result unconfirmed; (L) = reported loss to Breiðablik, unconfirmed)
No clean sheet
The question that decides the game is a simple one: can either defence keep a clean sheet when the two leakiest back lines in the league meet? Everything points to no. Markús Páll Ellertsson, ÍA's top scorer with six goals, comes up against a defence that's been prised open time and again — and if Akranes can play him into the box with through-balls from Rúnar Már Sigurjónsson and Guðmundur Þórarinsson, the chances will come.
At the other end, Þór have enough to punish. They scored three against KR and two against Víkingur, and ÍA have shown that whoever attacks them gets their openings. The key for the hosts is to control the tempo and avoid an end-to-end game — because the moment it opens up, it tilts against a defence conceding well over two a game on average. Win the midfield battle and keep Þór off the counter, and ÍA come away with it. Lose that battle and this turns into a goal-fest.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
ÍA have home advantage, the better league position and the sharper marksman on the pitch, and they face a side that hasn't kept a clean sheet in six games. What makes the goals call convincing is straightforward: both defences have leaked steadily, and both teams have scored in most of their recent matches. The signs point to an open game with goals at both ends.
The risk breaks two ways. Þór arrive with a win over the champions behind them and have shown they can knock over a side in a slump — and ÍA are firmly in a slump. If the Akranes defence goes the way it did at Keflavík and against KA, the bottom club could comfortably take the points back north. And if one of the goalkeepers keeps an unlikely clean sheet, the goals call falls.
Lárus Orri Sigurðsson — the Akureyri man in charge at Akranes — welcomes his old home town in a game about keeping ÍA, eighteen-time Icelandic champions, clear of the drop zone. And don't forget Þór's goalkeeper, Aron Birkir Stefánsson, who scored from inside his own half against KR earlier this summer.