Valur have not drawn a single league game all summer. Ten matches, five wins, five defeats — someone always walks off with the three points, someone always leaves empty-handed. They score in bunches and concede in bunches. Their last five league games have brought thirteen goals against them, five of those in a single home thrashing by Víkingur. Waiting for them at Akranes is ÍA, a side that has collected its points on the road this season and stuttered at home. And home is exactly where they meet now.
THE MARKET
ÍA come into this off a disappointment: a home cup defeat to Víkingur four days ago, 1–2, and an exit from the competition. Manager Lárus Orri Sigurðsson said afterwards that it was now all about the league, and that the points haven't matched the performances. There's something to that. ÍA — from Akranes, an hour up the coast from Reykjavík — have taken all three of their wins from the last five league rounds away from home, at Stjarnan, Þór and FH. At their own ground it has gone less smoothly: a defeat to Keflavík and a draw with ÍBV in which a two-goal lead slipped away.
Valur sit three points above them and carry the stronger attack on paper, but the defence is in pieces right now. Thirteen goals in five league games is a worry for any side, and that 1–5 home loss to Víkingur lingered. Manager Hermann Hreiðarsson — the former Iceland international and long-serving Premier League defender — leans on his side's counterattacking, and Patrick Pedersen is the key man there, the Besta deild's top scorer last season. The attack, in other words, is there. The question is whether the back line holds long enough.
RECENT FORM
League goals (last 5): 8 for / 7 against
This is a game of contrasts. Valur want to play at speed, win the ball and get Pedersen into a shooting position before the defence has reset — that's the match Hermann is after. ÍA usually defend reasonably and trust themselves to play with control, but the question is whether their modest attack — twelve goals in nine games — can do enough damage to a back line that keeps being prised open.
Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson marshals that defence as captain, and it falls to him and those around him to close the gaps Víkingur and others have been finding lately. If ÍA can keep Pedersen away from fast breaks and force Valur to work through a packed midfield, the hosts will get their own chances against a brittle defence. Give up space in transition, though, and Valur have the players to punish it instantly.
HEAD-TO-HEAD (per reports)
THE PICK
The pick is a narrow home win. Valur are the more dangerous side going forward, but they bring a defence in pieces to a ground where ÍA get to come at them, and the home advantage closes the gap in quality. The goals numbers back a lively game too: both sides have scored and conceded in almost every recent match, and the signs point to both teams scoring and the total clearing two and a half.
The risk cuts two ways. ÍA have been shaky at home themselves this summer, and their modest attack might simply not punish Valur enough even when the chances come. And Pedersen is one fast break from turning the game — if Valur get an early goal from a transition, this could just as easily end as an away win. Get through the first half in front, though, and the situation favours ÍA.
This is a meeting of two of Iceland's most decorated clubs, even if it isn't a local derby — ÍA from the coastal town of Akranes, Valur from Reykjavík. Valur are run by Hermann Hreiðarsson, the former Iceland international and Premier League veteran, with Patrick Pedersen — last season's league top scorer — leading the line. Kick-off is at 19:15 at Akranes.