In June, ÍBV were the hottest side in the league. They travelled north to Akureyri and rolled over Þór 4-1, three goals inside the opening 25 minutes. Two months on, the sides meet again — and the picture has flipped. ÍBV arrive winless in five, ten goals shipped in that run, while Þór, rooted to the bottom, have taken points off the reigning champions. This is a straight relegation six-pointer: a Þór win pulls them level to within a single point of ÍBV heading into the final stretch.
```
The market
```
Form tells two different stories. ÍBV flew out of the blocks this summer under Aleksandar Linta, but they are now in free fall at the back — two home defeats to Fram and ÍA, ten goals conceded in the last five. The attack still works. Omar Sowe leads the scoring with six, with Sesar Örn Harðarson and Róbert Elís Hlynsson close behind. It's everything behind them that's coming apart. Ninth place is no longer safe; the bottom four are packed in just behind.
Þór sit at the other extreme: bottom of the table, the lowest scorers in the division with just 18 goals in nineteen games, yet oddly hard to kill at home. Every point they've taken in the top flight this season has come at Akureyri — wins over Víkingur and Breiðablik, a draw with KA. Away from home it's a different tale. They create almost nothing and have lost 0-2 at both ÍA and Keflavík on their last two trips. Sigurður Heiðar Höskuldsson knows this team lives on tight, low-event games — and those are rarely won on the road.
```
LAST 5 MATCHES
```
The game turns on whether Þór can carry their home model south to the islands. Sigurður Heiðar wants it kept low, the midfield locked down, trusting Ágúst Eðvald Hlynsson — his top scorer with five — to punish something on the break or from a set piece. Gyrðir Hrafn Guðbrandsson, who scored on debut against Víkingur, gives them an extra edge up top.
Against that sits the question of whether ÍBV repeat their June opening. Back then they exploited exactly what hurts Þór most: this is a side that struggles to withstand pressure early, and the first twenty minutes settled it. If ÍBV score first, Þór are in trouble — they have neither the goals nor the style to chase a game away from home. But if Þór keep it clean past the interval, the nerves shift to the hosts, who don't handle waiting well.
```
HEAD-TO-HEAD
ÍBV settled it early with three goals in 25 minutes. ```
```
THE PICK
```
The pick is ÍBV. Þór have shown nothing to suggest they can score or control a match away from home, and the hosts have both the forwards and the recent memory of this exact fixture — they punished these same opponents ruthlessly two months ago. Over 2.5 is a read rather than a firm market line: most of ÍBV's recent games have been high-scoring affairs, in both directions.
The risk comes in two forms. ÍBV's defence is a mess, and a bottom side that gets its nose in front early can drag a bigger team down to its level — if this goes 1-0 to Þór, the tension at Hásteinsvöllur will be real. And if Þór's compactness holds, this can become exactly the kind of low-event 1-0 that keeps them afloat, and the goals line falls the other way.
The Westman Islands leave their mark on this one. An away game out here means a ferry or a flight for the northerners, and an open, wind-prone ground that can change a match. And Þór turn up without the biggest name they signed this summer — Aron Einar Gunnarsson, the former Iceland captain, came, played briefly, and had left for Qatar before August was halfway done. The promoted side have to save themselves without him.