Lionel Messi had thirteen World Cup goals to his name when he walked out against Algeria on the opening matchday. Three goals later he had sixteen, level with Miroslav Klose's all-time World Cup record — a hat-trick on his 200th cap, the first man to play in six World Cups. That was how Argentina began their title defence. Now the holders close the group against Jordan, who are playing the very first World Cup match in their history. The two sides have never met.
The market
Both teams to score: No the likelier call
Argentina opened with an untroubled 3–0 win over Algeria in Kansas City, Messi scoring all three on 17, 60 and 76 minutes. The squad is largely the one that lifted the trophy in 2022; Cristian Romero is back after a knee problem, and Paulo Dybala misses out by selection rather than injury. The real question isn't about quality, though — it's about motivation. Beat Austria on the second matchday and Argentina are all but through to the round of 32 with a game to spare, and that opens the door to resting key men here, with Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez the obvious replacements. The side that starts could look very different from the one that rolled over Algeria.
Jordan lost their opener 3–1 to Austria, even after Ali Olwan had levelled it at 1–1 early in the second half. The damage came in the last half hour: an own goal off Yazan Al-Arab from a corner, then an Arnautović penalty in stoppage time. Jordan are badly missing Yazan Al-Naimat, who scored eight of their 32 goals in qualifying but is out injured, by reports. What's left is a team built on a compact defence and the quick counter-attacks of Mousa Al-Tamari.
RECENT FORM
Algeria 3–0, Iceland 3–0 (friendly)
Austria 1–3 — Olwan with Jordan's goal
Everything turns on whether Jordan's deep block holds. Jamal Sellami will likely set up in a 3-4-2-1, the wing-backs providing the width and driving the transitions, and the idea against stronger teams is simple: shut the middle, sit deep, and send Al-Tamari and Olwan away when the chance comes. Argentina answer with patient possession — Enzo Fernández, Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul moving the ball through midfield while Messi looks for space between the lines.
The key is whether Jordan can keep the block tight long enough for those transitions to count. Crowd Messi in the zone in front of the defence and spring Al-Tamari into open space, and they can make this awkward. But if Argentina find Messi early between the lines, as they did against Algeria, the block breaks — and from there it gets away quickly from a side that has to live with the pace and quality for 90 minutes.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
None — this is the first meeting between the two.
THE PICK
Both teams to score: No
Argentina have the quality, the depth and the form, and Jordan run into exactly what a deep defence struggles with most: a team that keeps the ball, finds runners between the lines, and punishes the smallest gap. Less than half an hour of switching off cost Jordan three goals against Austria, and Argentina are a far harsher examiner than that.
The risk comes in two parts. If Argentina are already through before kickoff, resting key men is realistic, and a refreshed, less convincing side could turn this into a quiet 1–0 or 2–0 game-management win rather than a goal fest — which would put the Over in doubt. And if Jordan do hold the block and nick a goal on the break, the call that they fail to score goes the same way. But a deep-sitting side not scoring is precisely what the market is pricing, and rightly so.
Argentina tuned up for the tournament with a 3–0 win over Iceland in Auburn, Alabama. Barco, Messi and Almada scored — Messi came off the bench on 70 minutes and converted from the spot. The form Argentina carry into this match was shaped, in part, against the Iceland national team. Kickoff is 02:00 Iceland time on RÚV, an overnight watch for anyone willing to stay up.