KA have not lost a home league meeting with ÍBV in five straight — every one has gone the hosts' way at Greifavöllurinn. Now the sides meet there again, and the circumstances could hardly be more different. KA come into the final round on three straight wins, eight goals scored and only one conceded. ÍBV, from the Vestmannaeyjar (Westman Islands) off the south coast, are already relegated, winless in the league since early July, and facing the longest trip of their season: from the islands all the way north.
The market
There's no reliable market this far out. The call here is built on form and the history between the two, not on prices.
KA are flying into the run-in. Hallgrímur Jónasson's side have won three in a row, the last two 3–0 — first Þór in the Akureyri derby, then Stjarnan away — scoring eight and conceding one across that stretch. It was enough to climb clear of the drop zone with two rounds left, when KA sat two points above Þór in the second relegation place. If that cushion held in the penultimate round, this game becomes a formality rather than a shootout — we'll see.
It's a different story for ÍBV. They were formally relegated on 10 October after a 0–1 defeat to Þór, and they haven't won a league match since 4 July, when Valur last came to visit. By mid-September they were already described as winless in nine, the weight of it showing, and the defeat up north only extended the run. Aleksandar Linta's side now play for pride alone — and they have struggled badly to put the ball in the net down the closing stretch.
RECENT FORM (verified)
The key is KA's attack, and whether ÍBV can be bothered to stand up to it. Adam Ægir Pálsson scored in both 3–0 wins, and Hallgrímur Mar Steingrímsson has taken the penalties and found the net himself — those two have carried the attack while the side has churned out goals. The question isn't really whether KA create chances; it's whether ÍBV have the reason to defend with the intensity it takes to stop them.
That's where the uncertainty sits. The drop is a fact, there's nothing left in the table, and a long, weather-dependent journey sits behind them by kick-off. Ari í Haraldstovu Petersen and the defence in front of him shipped goal after goal through the closing weeks, and against a side as sure of itself as KA are right now, everything has to go right. If ÍBV can keep it goalless for the first half-hour and drag KA into a scrap, this could be closer than the scoreline suggests. If they can't, it goes the way these sides' home meetings have gone for years.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
The pick is a home win. KA are in their best form of the season, haven't lost to ÍBV at home in five straight, and face a side that has neither scored nor won to any real degree in months. Eight goals in the last three say plenty about where this is heading, and that's why the lean is also to over 2.5, with KA scoring more than once.
The risk is in the motivation. If KA already secured safety in the penultimate round, this is a dead rubber for both — and dead rubbers in the north-Iceland October cold have a way of settling into a 1–0 grind. And if ÍBV somehow poke one in for pride, the over and the clean sheet both blow away in the same instant. But as long as KA still have something to play for — or simply keep their momentum — everything points to a home win.
Little sums up a Besta deild final round better than ÍBV's journey: out of the Vestmannaeyjar by ferry or plane, then the long road north to Akureyri, one of the longest trips in the league and all of it at the mercy of the weather. A year ago these two met at the same stage of the season and shared seven goals — ÍBV losing 3–4. Now the roles are reversed: ÍBV down, KA fighting to stay up.