A year ago to the week, KR Reykjavík saved themselves from relegation on the final day of the season. Now they sit second, with one of the league's most prolific attacks and a habit of turning matches into goal-fests. Keflavík host them at the worst possible time. The newly-promoted side have conceded eight goals in their last two games, and now they meet the one attack in the division that punishes an open defence without mercy. On paper, this is a mismatch. But meetings between these two have a way of getting livelier than the table suggests.
THE MARKET
KR come into this off a 0–2 defeat to league leaders Víkingur — the first side to keep a clean sheet against them all summer. That alone tells the story. Under Óskar Hrafn Þorvaldsson, KR play bold, front-foot football, and the scorelines climb in both directions. They've scored around 38 goals by the league table's count, but they've also conceded around 25. It's a high-risk approach that has earned second place while leaving the back line exposed on a regular basis. Six points behind Víkingur at the top, they can afford little other than to keep pace.
Keflavík are in a very different place. Back in the top flight after a two-year absence, the promoted side sit seventh on eleven points and heading the wrong way. The 1–6 loss to ÍBV was bad; the 1–2 home defeat to FH — the bottom side's first win of the season — probably stung more. Keflavík start matches with intent and were the better team for the opening twenty minutes against FH, but lately they have neither held leads nor limited the damage when things turn. Neither club has confirmed absentees, but Keflavík's defending is the obvious weak point heading into this one.
RECENT FORM
The league's top scorers, but a leaky defence
Eight goals conceded in the last two
The key question is whether KR's high back line opens up space for Ljubicic and company. KR press high and keep the ball, but it costs them room behind — exactly the room Keflavík exploited in April, when Ljubicic scored twice and put the hosts ahead on 77 minutes. Stefan Ljubicic, a former KR man, is Keflavík's main scorer, and he lives off reading passes in behind a defence. The question is whether Keflavík can stay disciplined enough to get into those positions. If they hold their shape through the early spells and take their chances when they come — as they did in April — this could be more uncomfortable for the visitors than many expect. But if their discipline slips and KR get going with their pace and quick passing, the game tilts fast into the pattern KR's results have drawn up again and again this summer: plenty of goals, at both ends.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PREDICTION
The pick is a KR away win, both teams to score, in a match with more than 2.5 goals. The logic is simple. KR have the firepower to score against a defence that has given way in its last two games, while their own back line offers Keflavík and Ljubicic enough chances to stay in the contest. Everything points to an open game.
The risk is that Keflavík drop deep, shut down the space and make it scrappy — a promoted side that has just shipped eight goals in two games might well turn up with nothing more than tightening the ranks in mind. If KR go 1–0 up early and choose to manage it from there, the under starts to look a lot stronger. The wind on this exposed coastal ground can also have its say, dragging down the quality at both ends.
Two old connections give the game its colour. Arnór Ingvi Traustason, a former Keflavík player and Iceland international, is now central to KR's attack, and he scored against his old club in April. Across from him stands Stefan Ljubicic, a former KR man, who answered in that same meeting with two goals against his old side. Both face their past again — and both have already shown they know how to make it memorable.