Morocco reached the World Cup semi-finals four years ago. Now they face a nation back at the tournament for the first time in 52 years. And yet the Moroccans have scored just once in each of their last two games — and against Brazil they started without a recognised centre-forward. The market makes them a clear favourite, which is logical given the gap in quality. But the question that lingers isn't whether they'll control the game. It's whether they can break down a packed defence that already held Scotland.
The market
Morocco arrive mid-transition. Walid Regragui resigned in March, three months out from the tournament, and in came Mohamed Ouahbi, the man who steered Morocco's under-20s to the World Cup title in 2025. Then, just before the finals, they had to cut Nayef Aguerd and Abde Ezzalzouli from the squad through injury. Even so, they were disciplined and dangerous on the counter against Brazil, drawing 1–1 with Ismael Saibari opening the scoring. The problem is further forward: two goals in two games, and no fixed No. 9 in the side that faced Brazil.
Haiti lost 1–0 to Scotland in the opening round. They had spells of the ball but created little. This is a side that defends stoutly and goes quiet in front of goal at this level. Their warm-ups were mixed — a 4–0 win over New Zealand, but a defeat to Peru. They reached the finals by topping their CONCACAF qualifying group, where Duckens Nazon was the leading scorer with six goals, though he started on the bench against Scotland. Worth remembering, too: Haiti played all their qualifying "home" matches at neutral venues.
RECENT FORM
The game will likely turn on the same patch where most Morocco matches do: the space out wide. Achraf Hakimi pushes the right-back high to stretch the pitch, and with Brahim Díaz as the creator through the middle, Morocco try to drag a compact defence out of shape and slide passes in behind. Haiti answer with a tight 4-4-2 and a guarded box — exactly what kept Scotland to a single goal.
For Haiti, the key isn't the ball; it's the moments. Win it high or hit it long to Frantzdy Pierrot and Wilson Isidor, and they have the pace to threaten on the break — with Nazon waiting on the bench as a real option. But to get there, they first have to hold the line for a long time. If Morocco score early, the whole structure unravels and the game cracks open. If Haiti carry a clean sheet past half-time, the squeeze comes back on Ouahbi and his players.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
The sides have never met.
THE PICK
The gap in quality is too wide to call anything but a Morocco win; they'll have the ball and more routes to goal. But two things temper the chance of a goal glut: Morocco have scored only once a game of late, and Haiti defended with discipline against Scotland without making much themselves. The market may lean faintly to the over, but it's all but level, and the signs point to a tighter, controlled game in which the hosts get it done with a goal or two.
The risk is twofold. If Morocco score early and Haiti are forced to open up, the game could easily clear 2.5. The other is Haiti grabbing one on the counter through Pierrot or Nazon — and there goes "both teams to score: no." And if Morocco have already secured their place, Ouahbi could rest players, which muddies the picture further.
Kickoff is at 22:00 Iceland time, the same slot in which Scotland and Brazil settle the other half of Group C — as is standard on the final group matchday, when both results play out at once.