New Zealand have never won a match at a World Cup. Seven attempts over the years, four draws, three defeats — and now, in the final round of Group G, they meet the highest-ranked side they'll face all tournament. On paper it's the worst possible moment to chase that first win. But Belgium, ranked ninth in the world going into the finals, opened by labouring to a 1-1 draw with Egypt, an uncomfortable reminder that you don't win a group on reputation alone.
The market
Both teams to score: not available
Both sides came out of the first round with a point and more questions than answers. Belgium couldn't break down a well-drilled Egypt, fell behind to Ashour's goal midway through the first half, and found no settled focal point up front until Romelu Lukaku came off the bench — the same Lukaku that manager Rudi Garcia had called out of shape in the days before the tournament. Kevin De Bruyne rattled the post, but the equaliser eventually arrived via an own goal. It was a draw rescued by quality, not by control.
New Zealand, by contrast, scored twice against Iran and drew 2-2. Chris Wood got them going and Elijah Just added two more — the first New Zealander to score a brace at a World Cup, and briefly the tournament's top scorer. The trouble was at the other end: they led twice and were pegged back twice, with Finn Surman and Michael Boxall turned inside out through the middle. The attack is the story; the defence is the interruption. One thing in New Zealand's favour: they've been based in Vancouver throughout, while Belgium have shuttled from Seattle to Los Angeles and now north across the border.
RECENT FORM (opening round)
This match probably turns on the same patch of grass New Zealand's opener did: the centre of their own defence. Surman and Boxall had a hard night against Iran, and now they face forwards from another bracket entirely. Lukaku comes alive when he's fed inside the box, and De Bruyne is exactly the man to find him — Belgium's problem against Egypt wasn't a lack of quality but a lack of that service. New Zealand, for their part, look to go direct to Wood as a fixed point, and his link with Just produced both goals against Iran. The key question is simple: can Belgium finally get the ball to their men in the area — and if New Zealand's centre-backs hold their shape better than last time, they'll have a chance to keep this level longer than many expect.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
No recorded meeting between the nations was found.
THE PICK
Both teams to score: Yes
The pick is Belgium. The gap in quality is simply too wide, and a side that needs a result in the final round — with Lukaku and De Bruyne up top — should find a way through a defence that shipped two in its first game. Over 2.5 and both teams to score are our own read rather than a market line, since neither is available: but everything points to goals at both ends. New Zealand have shown they can score against this group's sides, and Belgium haven't kept a clean sheet.
The risk comes in two forms. First, where Belgium stand by the time this kicks off — if the group breaks so that they're already through, Garcia could rest players and the game could go flatter than it should. Second, New Zealand's discipline: if they don't hold their shape, as they failed to against Iran, and Belgium take an early lead and start managing the game at 1-0, both the over and both-teams-to-score are in trouble.
The match is on RÚV, but the clock is the obstacle: kickoff is 03:00 Iceland time, the middle of the night. The diehards will be up to see whether New Zealand can finally land that first World Cup win — everyone else will make do with the morning replay and avoid the result until then.