France and Norway have never met at a World Cup. Not once. After half a century of the occasional friendly, the two finally meet on the biggest stage — and in a match that could decide who tops Group I. Both won their openers without much fuss: France saw off Senegal 3-1, Norway ran over Iraq 4-1 with Erling Haaland in the lead role. Two sides arrive in Foxborough in a strong position. Only one of them knows what it takes to win the whole thing.
The market
Norway come in on a good run. The win over Iraq was their most convincing performance of the year, and it sits on top of an excellent qualifying campaign — eight wins from eight, 37 goals scored, only five conceded. Haaland is the focal point. His brace against Iraq took him to 57 goals in 51 internationals. Solbakken builds around an asymmetric 4-3-3 that lets Alexander Sørloth play alongside him up top. There are no injuries or suspensions in the squad, though the result against Senegal on Matchday 2 could yet call for some rotation.
France, meanwhile, arrive with a depth few can match. The first-choice side has scored three or more in each of its last three, and Kylian Mbappé scored twice against Senegal. The only defeat in their last five came in a warm-up against Ivory Coast, when Deschamps made sweeping changes and admitted himself that his team lost control after the break. Eduardo Camavinga and Hugo Ekitike were reportedly left out of the squad through injury when it was named, but neither has any bearing on this match. The big question around France isn't about quality — it's about motivation. If the place is more or less secured before kickoff, which side does Deschamps send out with one eye on the knockouts?
LAST 5 MATCHES
This match likely turns on whether Norway can keep the middle of the pitch shut long enough to stay in it. France hold a clear individual edge out wide and in transition, and Mbappé lives off running in behind a line that sits too high. That's where Sander Berge and Fredrik Aursnes become key — they have to screen France's attacking midfield band and deny Tchouaméni and Rabiot the time to slide the ball forward.
At the other end, Norway have a card of their own to play. They'll accept the smaller share of the ball and look for France at set pieces and in transition, where Haaland, Sørloth and Kristoffer Ajer are genuine aerial threats. France's full-backs, Koundé and Théo Hernandez, also get their test against the width Antonio Nusa and Julian Ryerson provide down the right. Win enough corners and free-kicks and this becomes a game that can turn on a single header. Keep the midfield calm, though, and the pace out to Mbappé opens up sooner or later.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
France have the better players in almost every position, and while Norway carry power and concentration, that rarely holds up against a side of this calibre over ninety minutes. What supports the under is that the market keeps the total near even despite two strong attacking teams — a sign it expects France to manage the game rather than trade blows. The likeliest script is France scoring early, taking the pace out of it, and letting Norway have the ball without creating much.
The risk sits in the set pieces. Give Haaland or Sørloth a clean look from a corner or free-kick and an equaliser changes everything — Norway get to sit back, France have to open up again, and the game tips over 2.5 in a hurry. It's also worth reading the lines again after Matchday 2: if the place is already secured, Deschamps could rest players and change the picture.
Icelandic viewers know this France side first-hand. Iceland shared their qualifying group and held them to a 2-2 draw — not that it was enough; France went through as group winners, Iceland stayed home. Norway, led by Haaland and Ødegaard, pull in strong Nordic interest at their first World Cup since 1998. The match is live and free on RÚV at seven o'clock Iceland time.