Norway are back at a World Cup after 28 years away, and they didn't ease themselves in: four goals past Iraq on Matchday 1 and top of Group I on goal difference. Senegal had a very different night. The Lions of Teranga made the better chances in the first half against France and lost 1-3 anyway, and they sit pointless with their backs to the wall. One of these sides can start thinking about the round of 32. The other can barely afford another setback.
The market
Both teams to score: yes the likelier call
Norway arrive flying. They won every game in qualifying — including an 11-1 rout of Moldova and a 4-1 win away at Italy in the San Siro — and carried it straight into the Iraq game. Erling Haaland was kept quiet for the first half-hour, but the moment he tapped in his first — his 51st goal for Norway in just 56 caps — the direction of the match was set. Behind him, Martin Ødegaard runs the play, and it was his corner that Ostigard headed in for the third. Set pieces are a genuine threat for Ståle Solbakken's side.
Senegal are a more complicated case. They came through qualifying unbeaten — this is a third straight World Cup — and a year ago they beat England 3-1 at Wembley, the first African nation to do it. Against France, all that was missing was the clinical finish: Ismaila Sarr fired over from a few yards out in first-half stoppage time, and chances like that can't go begging again. The defence is experienced, with Koulibaly and Niakhaté in the middle, but the team has shipped six goals in its last three games. The pace going forward — Sarr, Jackson and Mané — is there. The question is whether the finishing shows up with it.
RECENT FORM
The key to this one is how Senegal approach a game they can barely afford to lose. They need to attack, but the moment they open up they hand Norway exactly what they do best: sit in midfield, take the blow, and break back with quality. Haaland and Sørloth are waiting for the long ball, Ødegaard for the space.
That's the bind for Pape Thiaw. If he wants three points, he has to push the line up and commit more men forward — and that gives Norway the quick transitions that punished Iraq. Defend too deep, though, and Senegal end up with a draw that does them little good. So they have to win the game without losing it in transition, and that's easier said than done against a side with the world's most ruthless striker up top.
The outcome is in Senegal's own hands. If Sarr and company take the chances they created against France, this is an open game. If they miss again in front of goal, it's going to be a long night.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
1 March 2006 Friendly Senegal Senegal 2–1 Norway
THE PICK
Both teams to score: Yes
Norway come in better placed, in better form, and with a man up front who finishes the chances Senegal have been wasting. Both sides scored on Matchday 1, Norway play a high-scoring game, and Senegal will be forced to chase it — that's a recipe for goals at both ends.
The risk is a disciplined Senegal performance. If Koulibaly and Niakhaté shut Haaland down and the team keeps its head in transition, their experience and pace could be enough to turn the game — and if Senegal go 1-0 up early and Norway have to do the chasing, the picture changes. The worst news for the pick would be a tight, cautious match where neither side wants to open up first.
For Icelandic viewers this is Nordic curiosity more than anything: Norway at their first World Cup in 28 years, and Haaland finally on the big stage. RÚV — which holds the Icelandic rights to the tournament — is showing it, but it'll cost you some sleep: kickoff is on the stroke of midnight Iceland time, into the small hours of 23 June.