In five meetings, Paraguay have never beaten Australia. Three draws, two defeats — and every one of them a friendly. Now the two meet for the first time with something on the line, in the final round of Group D, and they arrive from opposite emotional places. Australia opened with a surprise win over Türkiye, goalkeeper Patrick Beach making eight saves. Paraguay were dealt a heavy blow, beaten 4-1 by the USA, and need to recover ground. The question is whether experience or momentum carries the day.
The market
Both teams to score: not available
The picture sharpens in the second round of fixtures, played in the days before this match. Australia face the USA and Paraguay take on Türkiye, and those results decide how much is riding on the finale — anything from a straight knockout for a place in the last 16 down to a near dead rubber. None of that is settled as this is written.
What is settled is the start each side made. Australia were disciplined and compact in a 2-0 win over Türkiye, Nestory Irankunda putting them ahead in the 27th minute and Connor Metcalfe sealing it from a late break. They defended deep and leaned on Beach, whom Tony Popovic picked ahead of the experienced Maty Ryan in something of a surprise. Paraguay came apart early against the USA, though their forwards showed they can create — Julio Enciso laid on the goal Mauricio finished late. Gustavo Alfaro's side has real invention in the final third, but it shipped four goals on opening day.
LAST MATCH (at the World Cup)
The match likely turns on whether Paraguay can break down a deep Australian block without being caught on the counter that punished Türkiye. Enciso and Miguel Almirón are meant to drive the attack, with Antonio Sanabria up top — a front three that relies on individual quality and quick passes through the lines. Against that, Australia set up with a crowded back line built around Harry Souttar and Cameron Burgess, happy to sit deep and bite the moment they win the ball back.
That is where the danger lies for Paraguay. The further they push bodies forward, the more space opens up behind for Metcalfe and company to run the same play that worked against Türkiye. The key for Paraguay is patience — keeping their balance and trying to pull the Australian block out of shape without exposing themselves. If Australia, for their part, manage to shut the middle and force Paraguay wide, the game could easily become a grind with few clear chances.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
These are two sides that defend in numbers and look for goals in transition rather than long spells of pressure. The market leans clearly to the Under, the sides' shared history is full of draws, and the result market is all but level — everything points to a tight, low-scoring game in which neither side wants to open up first.
The risk comes in two forms. The second-round results could change the nature of the game entirely: a side that has to win is forced to attack, and then the match opens up — and with it both the goal line and the chance of a decisive result. And Paraguay carry enough individual quality to pick a lock in a single moment; if the first goal goes in early, the case for a draw and the Under starts to unravel.
For viewers in Iceland this is a late one: kickoff is at 02:00 Iceland time, with RÚV holding the rights to the tournament at home. Whether it proves worth staying up for depends largely on Wednesday's results — but the final round of a group with places still up for grabs is rarely dead time.