Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice against Uzbekistan to become the first man to find the net at six different World Cups. The same week, Luka Modrić — forty years old — laid on a goal against Ghana to become the oldest player ever to assist at the tournament. Now two captains, both almost certainly at their last major tournament, meet for the first time at a World Cup. Neither arrived as a group winner. Portugal and Croatia both finished second, and they run into each other in the Round of 32, sooner than anyone expected.
The market
Portugal come through with five points and a 6-1 goal difference, but that number doesn't tell the whole story. The big win, 5-0 over Uzbekistan, was bookended by two draws — 1-1 against DR Congo in the opener and a goalless final game with Colombia, where they finished second behind the Colombians. This is a side that can steamroll a weaker opponent, but one that has struggled to break down a disciplined defence.
Croatia took the other road. They lost 4-2 to England in their first match and looked poor, then answered with a 1-0 win over Panama and a 2-1 win over Ghana to take second place in their group. They also know the ground — the Panama game was played right here in Toronto. Modrić and Mateo Kovačić still set the tempo in midfield, and through the group stage Dalić has rotated his centre-forward between Petar Musa and Ante Budimir.
There are no confirmed absences for either side as this is written, and bookings from the group stage are wiped clean for the knockouts. Roberto Martínez is reported to be stepping down as Portugal's head coach once the tournament ends — there's an end-of-era feel hanging over both dressing rooms.
Recent form (group stage)
The game is likely to be settled in midfield, because both sides want the ball and build through technical central midfielders. Vitinha and João Neves are meant to keep Portugal ticking; against them stand Modrić and Kovačić, who carried Croatia through the group. Modrić created four chances against Ghana, more than anyone on the pitch. Whoever controls the tempo in the middle controls the match.
That's also where Portugal's best hope lies. The pace out wide — Pedro Neto and Rafael Leão — meets a Croatia back line that is experienced but not quick. If Portugal can get at the full-backs in open space, they can punish it. But to do that they need to move the ball forward fast, before Modrić and company slow everything down and drag the game into the calm, low-key rhythm that suits Croatia best. If Croatia manage the tempo and keep Portugal in front of them, this becomes a patience game where a single goal might be enough.
Head-to-head
First meeting between the two at a World Cup (reported).
The pick
Portugal have more depth and more ways to create chances, and the market makes them modest favourites for a reason. The history backs a low-scoring game too — the last two meetings were both decided by a single goal, Portugal winning one and drawing the other. The signs point to a tight game where the first goal carries real weight, and I think Portugal are the more likely to get it.
The risk comes in two forms. First, this is knockout football — if it goes to extra time and penalties, everything is open, and there Croatia's experience from 2018 and 2022 could weigh heavily. Second, Portugal have shown they struggle to break down a disciplined defence, as the goalless game with Colombia made clear. If Croatia shut the midfield and keep it clean for long enough, a narrow Portugal win can turn into a draw — and then the under holds up, but the result call doesn't.
For viewers in Iceland, this is above all an evening with two legends in their final stretch: Ronaldo and Modrić, both almost certainly at their last World Cup, each on his own side. RÚV is showing the tournament and kickoff is at 23:00 Iceland time — a late one for anyone who wants to see whether either man has another night left in him.