Spain have conceded one goal in six matches at this tournament. Argentina have conceded in every knockout tie they've played — they needed extra time to see off Cabo Verde and a header in the 92nd minute to beat England. Two very different routes meet in New Jersey on Sunday: one side that has controlled its matches with composure, another that has found the decisive moment when it mattered most. It's the first time the two nations have met in a World Cup final.
The market
Both teams to score: Not established
Spain sit just ahead in the three-way market, the draw next and Argentina behind — but the margin is slim, and the lines will move once the teams are confirmed.
Spain arrive on the back of six straight wins and a goal difference of 12–1. Luis de la Fuente has built this run on control and a hard, mean defence rather than a flood of goals. Two of the four knockout wins came by a single goal — 1–0 over Portugal, 2–1 over Belgium — and one goal conceded in six matches tells its own story. In the semifinal against France, Lamine Yamal won the penalty that Mikel Oyarzabal buried, and Pedro Porro sealed the clean sheet. Worth noting: de la Fuente named a 26-man squad without a single Real Madrid player.
Argentina are the world champions, defending the title — but their road to the final has run along the edge. They scored 11 goals in the knockout rounds and conceded six, letting one in every game. Against England, Enzo Fernández equalised in the 85th minute and Lautaro Martínez headed the winner in stoppage time, both after assists from Lionel Messi.
Two things work against Argentina physically. They played their semifinal a day later than Spain, so they have one fewer day to recover. And the forecast for Sunday is around 31°C in the mid-afternoon — heavy conditions for a side that leans on finding its legs late in games.
LAST 6 MATCHES
Conceded in all four
The key question is the same one every Argentina opponent has faced: what do you do about Messi? In the semifinal he laid on both goals from the space between defence and midfield, and that's where Argentina's threat comes from. Spain's job is to close that space — the midfield, likely Zubimendi and Pedri, has to hold a tight line in front of centre-backs Cubarsí and Laporte and deny Messi the time to lift his head.
The flip side is that Spain play high and keep the ball. That leaves space behind the full-backs when Argentina break, and Julián Álvarez and Lautaro are quick to punish it. Argentina have also shown they can score from set pieces — the winner against England came from a header.
If Spain can smother the game with possession and keep Messi away from central areas, it's hard to see where Argentina's goals come from. But if Argentina can drag the match into fast transitions, with Messi picking up the ball on the move, the picture changes quickly.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
Spain have been the most disciplined side at the tournament and come in better prepared — a day more rest and a defence that has barely given an inch. Set against a team that has conceded in every knockout tie and trusts the moment over the control, the lean is towards Spain. The market gives no clear steer on the goals line, but narrow wins and five clean sheets in six point to a low total — finals are rarely open, and both sides can afford to keep it tight.
The risk cuts two ways. Messi has repeatedly found the pass no one saw coming, and one moment like that is enough to crack a tight game open. And if Argentina go ahead early, Spain are forced to open up — and then those fast transitions can rewrite both the result and the goals line in an instant.
No Icelandic player will step onto the pitch, but a World Cup final on a Sunday night doesn't need a national tie to pull people to the screen. Kick-off is at 19:00 Iceland time, and the match is expected to be shown on RÚV, Iceland's public broadcaster. For many, the evening comes down to one thing: this could be Messi's last game at a World Cup.