Tunisia reached the World Cup without conceding a single goal in ten qualifiers. In their first match at the tournament itself, they shipped five. Sweden tore through the defence that was supposed to be the team's calling card, and Sabri Lamouchi was gone soon after. Hervé Renard now takes over mid-tournament, with a back line in pieces and the hardest possible opening assignment: the most technically gifted side in Group F, one that has already shown it doesn't fold.
The market
Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands in their opener, and they had to come from behind twice to do it — Keito Nakamura levelled midway through the second half, and Daichi Kamada hammered in the equaliser on 88 minutes. They arrive in good shape, with recent wins over England at Wembley and over Brazil to draw on. The biggest blow is the absence of Kaoru Mitoma, ruled out before the tournament with injury, but that hands Takefusa Kubo even more of the creative load out wide.
For Tunisia, everything is about a fresh start. Renard has only a handful of days to rebuild the structure that collapsed against Sweden, where five goals came from an xG of just 1.36 — the game ran away from them through individual errors as much as poor defending. Tunisia's only goal came from a Hannibal Mejbri delivery, headed home by Omar Rekik, and set pieces look like the team's main route to goal. The goalkeeping question lingers too: Lamouchi's decision to start Mouhib Chamakh ahead of more experienced options drew criticism, and nobody knows what the new coach will do. Everything points to Tunisia sitting deeper and more compact, but whether the new shape holds against a mobile Japan side is another matter.
RECENT FORM
Conceded five against the Swedes, but came through qualifying without conceding a goal
Two scored, two conceded
The heart of this match is out wide. Renard will try to close the spaces Sweden exploited, and to do that he needs to get a grip on the areas where Kubo and Nakamura operate. Kubo played Nakamura in for Japan's first goal against the Netherlands and is the team's chief creator with Mitoma out — he drifts inside the full-back and into the half-space constantly. Tunisia will likely answer with a back five and a narrow midfield, but that puts the onus on the full-backs' stamina against Japan's repeated rotations.
The key question is whether Renard can fix the concentration in next to no time. Tunisia's defence wasn't simply worse than Sweden's — it broke down in isolated moments, when Ellyes Skhiri lost the ball for the third goal and players lost their men. Japan punish those mistakes faster than most, especially in the second half when they crank up the pressure. If Tunisia recover the discipline that earned them ten qualifiers without conceding a goal, they can make this awkward. If it slips again, it will be a long night.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
Japan are the better team by every measure, arrive in the better position, and have historically had Tunisia's number. They're patient enough to wait for openings against a low block, and sharp enough to take advantage of the kind of mistakes Tunisia made against Sweden. The under comes with it: Renard will almost certainly look to shut the game down rather than open it up, and Tunisia struggle to create anything outside set pieces.
The risk is twofold. A change in the coaching staff can give a team a short burst of energy, and a reorganised Tunisian defence could frustrate Japan for a half — if the game is goalless going into the closing stretch, Japan might not find the gap. And if Tunisia score from a set piece, the both-teams-and-under read unravels fast. But for that, Tunisia have to do what they failed to do against Sweden: defend without making mistakes.