Türkiye took thirty shots against Australia on the opening day. They didn't score one of them, and they lost 2–0. Thirty shots, no goal — that's their tournament so far in a single line, and now a defeat means near-certain elimination. Paraguay are in exactly the same spot after a 4–1 hammering by the United States. So two sides who both have to win meet at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, and one of them is most likely going home when it's over.
The market
Türkiye controlled the ball against Australia and let fly — but those thirty attempts produced only about 1.4 expected goals on Opta's numbers, and nothing real on the scoreboard. That tells the story: this side generates volume, not quality. Otherwise the form is fine, seven wins and a draw since they shipped six against Spain in qualifying last autumn. But at major tournaments Türkiye have lost nine of their last thirteen, and the pressure is heavy at their first World Cup since they took bronze in 2002. Kenan Yıldız is reportedly still managing a calf problem and is likely to be limited to another cameo. That leaves the attacking thrust with Arda Güler, Barış Alper Yılmaz and Orkun Kökçü, captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu on set pieces, and Ferdi Kadıoğlu — who created five chances against Australia — on the left.
Paraguay were 3–0 down at half time against the United States, the game effectively finished by the break. They steadied after the interval, Julio Enciso teeing up Mauricio to pull one back, but the 4–1 final score said everything that needed saying. They've now won just one of their nine World Cup openers. Before that setback, though, they had a reputation for keeping things tight. Gustavo Caballero and Ramon Sosa are reportedly doubtful, but Antonio Sanabria, their top scorer in qualifying, leads the line.
LAST 6 MATCHES
The question that decides this is a simple one: can Türkiye finally turn their grip on the ball into goals? They'll almost certainly own possession and the shot count, just as they did against Australia, with Güler the key man to unlock the defence through balls and Çalhanoğlu dangerous from dead balls. Against them Paraguay set up with a deep block and Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete in the middle — experienced defenders, strong in the air, who know how to sit low and break quickly when the chance comes. That's where the danger lies for Türkiye: Australia's organised defence didn't punish them, but Sanabria, Enciso and Miguel Almirón are quicker to cut through than any Australian. If Paraguay win the skirmish — defend compactly, use their pace going forward — they can catch Türkiye the same way they caught themselves out against the USA. But if the defence stays as leaky as it was in Los Angeles, Türkiye will finally get the chances they've been waiting for.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
Türkiye have created enough to win two games, never mind one, and Paraguay's defence looked nowhere near solid enough against the United States to keep a side like this quiet for ninety minutes. When both teams have to win, the game opens up, and that points toward goals at both ends — Paraguay scored against the USA and carry a threat going forward with Sanabria and Enciso leading the way.
The risk is the thing that has defined Türkiye all tournament: create everything, finish nothing. If this goes the way the Australia game did — thirty shots, no goal — and Paraguay nick one on the break, the pick falls apart. A low-scoring, nervy match in which neither side dares open up is a real possibility when this much is on the line.
Kick-off is at 03:00 Iceland time, live on RÚV, well into the night for the diehards — the tournament's kickoffs run roughly 16:00 to 04:00 here, so this one is at the deep end. That's the temptation: staying awake to see whether one of these two bows out of the World Cup as early as the second round.