Three of the players who took the field against Senegal — Courtois, De Bruyne and Lukaku — were also on the pitch in Brazil in the summer of 2014, the night Belgium knocked the USA out of the last 16 in extra time. There is no such survivor in the American squad. And it wasn't the only time Belgium had the final word: the two met in a friendly in March, where the hosts led at half-time before Belgium scored three times early in the second half to win 5–2. Now they meet again — a knockout tie, one side going home.
The market
Both teams to score: not yet posted
*(The full three-way line for 90 minutes hadn't gone up when this was read; the draw is well in play.)*
The USA arrive with three wins in four, having topped Group D and secured the men's team's first World Cup knockout win since 2002 — 2–0 over Bosnia. But that win came at a cost. Folarin Balogun, the team's top scorer with three goals, was shown a straight red after a VAR check and is suspended. Pochettino now has to find a new man up top — Pepi and Wright are options, but Pulisic could just as easily be pulled inside. The loss to Türkiye, where the USA conceded a late winner, also showed a defence that can open up in the closing stages.
Belgium got here by an entirely different route. Two group-stage draws — 0–0 against Iran and 1–1 against Egypt — gave little cause for optimism, and against Senegal they went 2–0 down before Lukaku and Tielemans dragged the tie back with goals on 86 and 89 minutes and a stoppage-time penalty. A 3–2 win in extra time, but 120 minutes in the legs. Their attack has leaned on individual moments rather than any sustained rhythm, and De Bruyne — 35, his minutes rationed — has yet to complete a full match at the tournament. Belgium have already played twice at Lumen Field and know the surroundings, while the USA travel north from Santa Clara. Both sides have had five days' rest.
LAST 4 MATCHES
The key is whether the American press can disrupt Belgium's build-up before De Bruyne — on limited minutes — gets to set the tempo. Tyler Adams leads a high press and the USA break quickly in transition; Belgium build slowly and funnel the ball through De Bruyne's feet. If Adams and company can close the passing lanes into him, Belgium are forced to rely on the individual craft of Doku and Trossard out wide.
The other question is just as pressing: who leads the USA line without Balogun? Pulisic is the creative force and the main goal threat since returning from injury, but pull him inside and the hosts lose width up front. Tillman adds a threat from the second line and from set pieces — he scored a free kick against Bosnia. Win the midfield and keep Belgium in low gear, and the match tilts the USA's way; let Belgium slow the tempo, and it drifts onto their terms.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
Both teams to score: Yes
The pick is a home win. The USA are the fresher side, they play in front of their own crowd, and they bring a press that ill-suits a team that struggled to create in the group stage and needed everything it had to survive Senegal. The fatigue in Belgian legs after 120 minutes could tell as the match wears on.
The market lines for the goal total and both-teams-to-score aren't up yet, so this is our read: both sides have leaked at the back and scored at the front — ten USA goals and nine for Belgium across four games — and the last two meetings between them, 5–2 and 2–1, both finished with goals at either end. That points to over 2.5 and both teams to score.
The risk is that Belgian knockout ties so often turn on a single moment — De Bruyne, Lukaku or Trossard need only one chance — and without Balogun there's a question over whether the hosts have the man to finish their own. If it goes to extra time, Belgium's experience speaks for itself, just as it did in 2014.
There's no Icelandic thread running through this one, but RÚV holds the World Cup rights, so it can be followed here — for those willing to lose the sleep. Kickoff is at midnight Iceland time, overnight into 7 July. One for the night owls.