In the spring, Valur beat FH 3-0 at Hlíðarenda. In July, FH replied with a 2-0 win of their own at Kaplakriki. Now the sides return to Hlíðarenda to settle the season series — and they do it in the relegation round of the Besta deild, Iceland's top flight, where neither of these decorated clubs expected to spend the autumn. For Valur, from the west end of Reykjavík, it's a first visit to the bottom-six group since the split format came in. For FH, from Hafnarfjörður just south of the capital, the job is still to make survival official.
The market
There's no reliable market this far out from kickoff. The read below leans on form and the head-to-head rather than on the lines.
Valur come into the closing stretch scoring freely and defending loosely. They've found the net in every recent league game, but the back line has leaked all the way through — three, four, five conceded in the same run of weeks. Under Chris Brazell, who took over when Hermann Hreiðarsson was sacked at the end of June, results have improved in the lower group, yet a clean sheet has simply not come in a long time. Valur are effectively safe: nine points remain for the teams below them and the cushion holds. So they're playing for position and pride, not much more.
FH arrive in far better shape. Before the international break they beat KA 3-0 and put five past Stjarnan (5-2) at home, and while the second game was open, the first showed the defence can hold firm when it needs to. Under Jóhannes Karl Guðjónsson, FH sit six points clear of the drop with three rounds to play; a positive result here would all but seal their place in the division. The gap between the two, then, is as much about motivation as anything: Valur have little riding on it, FH still have work to do.
RECENT FORM (most recent first)
(two August results unconfirmed)
This one probably turns on whether Valur's defence can finally get a grip. FH bring confidence from two goal-fests and have scored eight in their last two; Valur, meanwhile, have conceded in every recent game, and more often than not more than once. If FH play at the tempo they hit before the break — with Birkir Valur Jónsson and company pressing hard — the hosts will struggle to keep pace.
At the other end, Valur rely on Adam Pálsson to keep finding the net. He scored in the 3-0 win over FH in the spring and has been sharp this autumn. The question is simple: can Valur score often enough to cover what they give away? If the game opens up — as most of Valur's have this autumn — that suits a side in the kind of scoring form FH are in. If FH instead choose to sit on their survival lead and shut the game down, the picture changes.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
The pick is goals at both ends. Both sides have scored in every one of Valur's recent games, and with the hosts defending the way they have and FH at their scoring best, everything points to an open contest. Home advantage and that 3-0 win in the spring tilt the result narrowly Valur's way — though that's the thinnest part of the call.
The risk is the motivation. Valur are safe and could turn up flat, while FH still have something to play for and arrive in much the better form — this is the side, after all, that won 2-0 at Kaplakriki in July. If FH take the game early and Valur can't answer, it swings quickly. And if FH keep a clean sheet, as they did against KA, the both-teams-to-score call falls apart on its own.
There's something strange about watching Valur and FH — two of the country's most successful clubs — settle their season in the bottom half of the table. It's been an unsettled year at Valur: Hermann Hreiðarsson sacked in June, Chris Brazell minding the shop for now, and Halldór Árnason waiting to take over in November. For a west-Reykjavík heavyweight, the relegation round is an unusual entry on the autumn calendar.