Valur have scored nine goals in their last three league matches — and conceded eight. At Hlíðarendi they haven't kept a clean sheet in that run, losing to Stjarnan and drawing 4-4 with KA. ÍA, from the town of Akranes north of Reykjavík, arrive unbeaten in three, having conceded just three, and they won the only confirmed meeting of the season 1-0. Two points separate the sides on the edge of the upper half with two rounds left. This is, in effect, a play-off for a top-six finish.
The market
No firm prices are available this far out from kickoff.
Valur come into the closing stretch of the season with plenty of noise off the pitch. Hermann Hreiðarsson was let go at the end of June, Chris Brazell has taken caretaker charge, and Halldór Árnason doesn't arrive until the season is over — the club's third mid-season managerial change in four years. On the pitch the picture cuts both ways: they score freely and leak just as freely. Patrick Pedersen scored twice against KA and Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson chipped in too, but the goalkeeper hasn't kept a clean sheet in any of the three confirmed matches.
ÍA are on a very different trajectory. Lárus Orri Sigurðsson was described as under pressure at midseason, but the team has turned it around: a draw with Víkingur, then wins over Þór and ÍBV, the second of those away in the Vestmannaeyjar (the Westman Islands, off the south coast) — a result that lifted them to fifth. Markús Páll Ellertsson is woven through that upturn, with ten goals and a share of the top of the league's scoring chart per KSÍ, and Haukur Andri Haraldsson has also been among the goals.
Injury and suspension lists aren't published this far ahead and will firm up in the final days. What is clear is the contrast: an open, goal-happy Valur side at home against a team that has been harder to break down.
LAST 3 MATCHES
Much of this game comes down to Markús Páll Ellertsson against the Valur defence. Markús Páll has found the net steadily, and ÍA have scored in each of their last three — they don't need many chances to punish you. Against him stands a back line that hasn't kept a clean sheet in a fortnight and keeps letting opponents in behind. Hólmar Örn marshals it with experience, but he's getting little peace at the moment.
The question is simple. If Valur can't tighten up and shut off the first ball into Markús Páll, he's likely to get into the positions that have served him so well. If, on the other hand, Valur can keep the game closed in the opening spells and use their own attacking weight — with Pedersen and Hólmar Örn on the move — home advantage can swing it. But on recent evidence, the Valur defence is a bigger worry than the ÍA attack.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
THE PICK
The pick is an ÍA win. There are no market lines this early, so this rests on form: ÍA arrive unbeaten and in better defensive balance, they won the June meeting, and they face a Valur side that hasn't kept a clean sheet in any of its confirmed matches and is dealing with turmoil around the coaching setup. At the same time, the flood of goals at Hlíðarendi points to both sides scoring and the total going over 2.5.
The risk lies in home advantage itself. Valur have scored nine goals in three matches, and if the attack clicks — with Pedersen in the mood — they can drag ÍA into an open contest they're ill-equipped to control. If the game goes to goals early, Valur are just as likely to take the points at home, and the away-win call would be on shaky ground, even if the goals side of it held.
The Icelandic thread here is Patrick Pedersen's comeback. By all accounts he's scoring again roughly a year after rupturing an Achilles — just as Valur need points in the final rounds to hold an upper-half place. Facing him are ÍA, up and running after a difficult start under Lárus Orri. Two historic clubs, two points between them, and a fight for the top half of the table.